The objective of this retrospective study was to determine if second grade Stanford 10 (SAT10) reading and/or language scale scores were predictive of AIMS reading outcomes in third grade, thereby providing a means to identify third grade students at risk of retention in accordance with Arizona's (MOWR) legislation. Early identification of students at risk of retention would afford educators the opportunity to be preemptive and plan for targeted intervention to ameliorate that risk for Arizona's third grade students. Predictability of AIMS reading performance from SAT10 scores would have provided educators across the state with a valid, reliable, standardized means by which to plan for and further ensure student success.

Second grade SAT10 reading and language scale scores from 2010-2013 cohorts and those same students' third grade AIMS reading scores (2011-2014) from a Title I, K-8 school district in southwestern Arizona was the population from which the study sample was drawn. The sample included only full academic year (FAY) general education students who had matched scores, meaning the students attended school within the study district for both their second and third grade years. Special education and English language learner students' data were excluded from the study because there is a provision within MOWR legislation that can preclude those students' retention and the data available for analysis did not have specific information that would have allowed disaggregation of those students into the appropriate groupings---those eligible for retention and those precluded according to legislation. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed; the dependent variable was third grade AIMS reading scale scores and variables explored were ethnicity, gender, and free/reduced lunch participation. Both SAT10 reading and language subtests scale scores in second grade were statistically significant predictors of those same students' third grade AIMS reading scale scores. While neither gender nor ethnicity statistically significantly added to the predictive equation for either SAT10 subtest, students' free and reduced lunch (F/RL) participation did. The relationship between F/RL and test scores was negative, thereby predicting a lower score for students for the reading portion of AIMS in third grade.