Front Cover -- International Futures: Building and Using Global Models -- Copyright -- Contents -- Prologue -- Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases -- Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1. What Path Are We On? -- 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have? -- 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty? -- 1.4. The Plan of the Volume -- References -- Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit -- 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems -- 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts -- 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems -- 2.2. Assembling Data -- 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions -- 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More -- 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type -- 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level -- 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops -- 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms -- 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level -- 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention -- 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket -- 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers -- 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points -- 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty -- 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios -- 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty -- 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses -- 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation -- 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission -- References -- Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling -- 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems -- 3.1.1. Foundational Work -- 3.1.2. The First Wave -- 3.1.3. New Capabilities -- 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models -- 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs.

3.2.2. Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures -- 3.3. Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use -- 3.3.1. Challenges in Model Building -- 3.3.1.1. Coverage and Connections -- 3.3.1.2. Transparency and Openness -- 3.3.2. Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty -- 3.3.2.1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) -- 3.3.2.2. Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives -- 3.4. Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges -- References -- Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures -- 4.1. Structural Overview of IFs -- 4.2. The User Interface of IFs -- 4.2.1. Data Analysis -- 4.2.2. Display of Results -- 4.2.3. Creation of Scenarios -- 4.3. Users and Uses of IFs -- 4.4. Looking Ahead -- References -- Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development -- 5.1. Population -- 5.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.1.2. Demographic Transitions -- 5.1.3. Modeling Population, Especially Fertility -- 5.1.4. Population in IFs -- 5.1.4.1. Fertility Rate -- 5.1.4.2. Mortality and Migration -- 5.1.4.3. Other Important Demographic Variables -- 5.1.4.4. Limitations -- 5.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.2. Health -- 5.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.2.2. Health Transitions -- 5.2.3. Modeling Health, Especially Mortality -- 5.2.4. Health in IFs -- 5.2.4.1. A Hybrid Distal and Proximate Modeling Approach -- 5.2.4.2. The Distal Foundation -- 5.2.4.3. The Risk Assessment Overlay -- 5.2.4.4. Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers -- 5.2.4.5. Other Important Health Variables -- 5.2.4.6. Limitations -- 5.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.3. Education -- 5.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.3.2. Education Transitions -- 5.3.3. Modeling Education Progression -- 5.3.4. Education in IFs -- 5.3.4.1. Primary Intake -- 5.3.4.2. Education Financing Reconciliation -- 5.3.4.3. Other Important Education Variables.

5.3.4.4. Limitations -- 5.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.4. Human Development in Summary -- 5.5. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development -- 6.1. Economics -- 6.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.1.1.1. Flow-Based Accounting -- 6.1.1.2. Economic Growth Dynamics -- 6.1.2. Economic Transitions -- 6.1.3. Modeling Economics -- 6.1.3.1. The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models -- 6.1.3.2. Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity -- 6.1.4. Economics in IFs -- 6.1.4.1. The IFs Approach to Productivity -- Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements -- Endogenous Productivity Growth -- An Example: Human Capital and Productivity -- Other Endogenous Productivity Terms -- Informality -- Physical Energy Shortages -- 6.1.4.2. Flows and Accounting -- Domestic Flows and the Demand Side -- External Accounts -- 6.1.4.3. Equilibration Dynamics -- 6.1.4.4. Income Distribution and Poverty -- 6.1.4.5. Limitations -- Around the SAM -- The LES Approach for Consumer Demand -- Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously -- Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP -- The Representation of Income Distribution -- Labor and Financial Markets -- 6.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.2. Government Finance -- 6.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.2.2. Government Finance Transitions -- 6.2.3. Modeling Government Finance -- 6.2.4. Government Finance in IFs -- 6.2.4.1. Government Consumption/Investment -- 6.2.4.2. Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations -- Military Sector -- Health Sector -- Education Sector -- Core Infrastructure Sector -- Other Infrastructure Sector -- Research and Development (R&D) -- Other Public Spending -- Exogenous Override -- 6.2.4.3. Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability -- 6.2.4.4. Other Government Finance -- 6.2.4.5. Balancing Revenues and Expenditures.

6.2.4.6. Limitations -- 6.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.3. Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System -- 6.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.3.2. Governance Transitions -- 6.3.3. Modeling of Governance -- 6.3.4. Governance in IFs -- 6.3.4.1. Security and Internal War -- 6.3.4.2. Other IFs Variables Related to the Three Dimensions -- 6.3.4.3. A Deeper Look at Culture -- 6.3.4.4. Limitations -- 6.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.4. International/Global Politics -- 6.4.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.4.2. International Political Transitions -- 6.4.3. Modeling International Politics -- 6.4.4. International Politics in IFs -- 6.4.4.1. Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation -- 6.4.4.2. Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term -- 6.4.4.3. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term -- 6.4.4.4. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term -- 6.4.4.5. Other Important Variables: Military Spending and Globalization -- 6.4.4.6. Limitations -- 6.4.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.5. Conclusion -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development -- 7.1. Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.1.2. Agriculture and Food Transitions -- 7.1.3. Modeling Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.4. Agriculture and Food in IFs -- 7.1.4.1. Yield and Production -- 7.1.4.2. Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration -- 7.1.4.3. Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture -- 7.1.4.4. Limitations -- 7.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.2. Energy -- 7.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.2.2. Energy Transitions -- 7.2.3. Modeling Energy -- 7.2.4. Energy in IFs -- 7.2.4.1. Resources and Production -- 7.2.4.2. Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration -- 7.2.4.3. Limitations -- 7.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.3. Infrastructure.

7.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.3.2. Infrastructure Transitions -- 7.3.3. Modeling Infrastructure -- 7.3.4. Infrastructure in IFs -- 7.3.4.1. Expected Access Rates -- 7.3.4.2. Other Important Functions -- 7.3.4.3. Limitations -- 7.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.4. Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note -- 7.5. Climate Change -- 7.5.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.5.2. Atmospheric Carbon Transition -- 7.5.3. Modeling Climate Change -- 7.5.4. The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs -- 7.5.5. Limitations -- 7.5.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.6. Water Systems -- 7.6.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.6.2. Water Transitions -- 7.6.3. Modeling Water Systems -- 7.6.4. Water in IFs -- 7.6.5. Limitations -- 7.6.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.7. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty -- 8.1. Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change -- 8.1.1. Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts -- 8.1.2. Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change -- 8.1.2.1. Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events) -- 8.1.2.2. Challenges: Temporal Considerations -- 8.1.2.3. Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements -- 8.1.2.4. Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together -- 8.1.2.5. Aggregated Statistical Representation -- 8.1.3. Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs -- 8.1.4. Limitations -- 8.2. Technology -- 8.2.1. Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology -- 8.2.2. Technology in IFs -- 8.2.3. Limitations -- 8.3. Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System -- 9.1. Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties -- 9.1.1. Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios -- 9.1.2. Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios.

9.2. Exploring Uncertain Futures: Scenarios.