
Select an Action

Understanding the Market Value and Utility of High-Variance Starting Pitchers
Title:
Understanding the Market Value and Utility of High-Variance Starting Pitchers
Author:
Lepore, James Francis, author.
ISBN:
9780438075412
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 electronic resource (50 pages)
General Note:
Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 57-06M(E).
Advisors: Frederic R. Paik Schoenberg Committee members: Juana Sanchez; Yingnian Wu.
Abstract:
While Major League Baseball has long been at the forefront of sports analytics, the most commonly used metric to evaluate the quality of a pitcher's performance is called the "Earned Run Average" (ERA) which is a global figure with no consideration for the distribution of values. This paper investigates the relationship between observed win percentages among pitchers that exhibit high start-to-start variation in the quality of their starts (consistent pitchers) relative to pitchers that exhibit low start-to-start variation in the quality of their starts (inconsistent pitchers). Logistic regression is first leveraged to transform the traditional components of ERA, runs allowed and innings pitched, into a proxy for expected win probability. Then, through the use of bootstrap sampling, a simulation of hypothetical pitchers is created to compare the difference in actual and expected win totals among pitchers that exhibit different distributional characteristics. Finally, the "Probability of Superiority" between opposing pitchers in individual games is calculated in an attempt to identify optimal matchups. In summary, a statistically significant pattern of outperforming expected win totals is found among pitchers with higher start-to-start variation. However, over the time period analyzed, pitchers at the major league level are much more similar than they are different. As a result, the magnitude of the difference in actual and expected win totals between consistent and inconsistent pitchers --- while statistically significant --- is arguably not large enough to be considered practically significant.
Local Note:
School code: 0031
Subject Term:
Added Corporate Author:
Available:*
Shelf Number | Item Barcode | Shelf Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| XX(694828.1) | 694828-1001 | Proquest E-Thesis Collection | Searching... |
On Order
Select a list
Make this your default list.
The following items were successfully added.
There was an error while adding the following items. Please try again.
:
Select An Item
Data usage warning: You will receive one text message for each title you selected.
Standard text messaging rates apply.


