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Implications of Climate Change for Extreme Precipitation and Stream-flow, and Impacts on Water Resources Management
Başlık:
Implications of Climate Change for Extreme Precipitation and Stream-flow, and Impacts on Water Resources Management
Yazar:
Asadieh, Behzad, author.
ISBN:
9780438002654
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
1 electronic resource (164 pages)
Genel Not:
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-10(E), Section: B.
Advisors: Nir Y. Krakauer Committee members: James Booth; Vasil Diyamandoglu; Balazs M. Fekete; Reza Khanbilvardi.
Özet:
Anthropogenic changes in global climate and intensification of Earth's hydrological cycle have resulted in increased amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events, with proportionally greater impact than for mean precipitation. Change in distribution, frequency, and intensity of precipitation under climate change is expected to result in increased intensity and frequency of flood and drought events in many regions. Here, we present a systematic global-scale comparison of changes in historical annual-maximum daily precipitation between station observations and 15 global climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. We find that both observations and climate models show generally increasing trends in extreme precipitation since 1901, with largest changes in deep tropics. Annual-maximum daily precipitation increased faster in the observations than in most of the models. On global scale, the observational Rx1day has increased by an average of 5.73 mm over the last 110 years, or 8.5% in relative terms. This corresponds to an increase of 10% per K of global warming since 1901, which is larger than the average of climate models with 8.3%/K. The average rate of increase in extreme precipitation per K of warming in both models and observations is higher than the rate of increase in atmospheric water vapor content per K of warming expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation.
Considering the underestimation seen in climate models compared to observations in capturing extreme precipitation trends, we then used bias-corrected simulated precipitation from GCMs prepared under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compare it to GHCN-Daily observations. We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation as a tool of studying change in water resources reliability. For 1951-2010, results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation than mean precipitation, and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.
Statistical analysis of runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from 5 GCMs provided by ISI-MIP shows that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 4.4% for mean runoff and 3.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third.
In the next step, we analyzed changes in global high and low streamflow extremes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios as indicators of hydrologic flood and drought intensity, using an ensemble of 5 bias-corrected GCM fields fed into 5 different global hydrological models from the ISI-MIP. Based on multi-model mean, approximately 37% and 43% of global land areas are exposed to increases in flood and drought intensities, respectively, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario. Nearly 10% of the global land areas are under the potential risk of simultaneous increase in both flood and drought intensities, with average rates of 10.1% and 19.8%, respectively; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30% of the world's population. Results also show that GHMs contribute to more uncertainties in streamflow changes than the GCMs. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
Notlar:
School code: 1606
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Yer Numarası | Demirbaş Numarası | Shelf Location | Lokasyon / Statüsü / İade Tarihi |
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XX(677977.1) | 677977-1001 | Proquest E-Tez Koleksiyonu | Arıyor... |
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