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The effects of an energy crisis on sea transport
Başlık:
The effects of an energy crisis on sea transport
Yazar:
Edmonds, Christopher John, author.
ISBN:
9780438059962
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
1 electronic resource (313 pages)
Genel Not:
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 76-08C.
Advisors: D. Faulkner.
Özet:
This study is concerned with the effects of an energy crisis on the design, building and operation of merchant ships. To determine the likelihood and severity of future energy crises a general study of the energy situation was undertaken. The nature of such energy crises, the measures which might be taken to avoid or alleviate them were studied and the effects of crises and counter-measures on world sea trade were investigated. An investigation was made of the use of energy in building ships and of the implications of the proportion of total energy use in building and operation. The feasibility and relative merits of alternative fuels and propulsion systems are discussed. To quantify the above discussion a probabilistic techno-economic model of a ship operation was developed using a digital computer. The technical part of the model was based on preliminary design techniques and on estimates of the design changes incurred by the adoption of alternatives to oil fired diesels. The capital and running costs are estimated on the basis of these redesigned vessels. The operational synthesis incorporated in the model is designed to reflect the expected returns of a vessel which is free to trade in a theatre of operation where the availability of cargo is uncertain. The options open to the operator of the ship, for instance the choice of destinations and ballast voyages are coded into a logical decision network. This network is analysed using a technique which was developed from Bayesian decision theory. Given the acceptance of certain assumptions regarding the operators attitude to risk, this technique allows a rational appraisal of vessels operating in the uncertain environment. This gives the synthesis the ability to reflect influences such as trade slumps which are hard to represent adequately in a deterministic model. The results of the design and operational synthesis were incorporated in a discounted cash flow analysis. The program system was tested and found to respond satisfactorily to changes in the operational parameters. A listing of the programs with explanatory notes appears as an appendix. The particular facets which have been studied using this model include the following - The effect of step and continuous rises in fuel costs, the effectiveness of slow steaming, the use of aluminium instead of steel in the vessel's construction, the use of alternative fuels and propulsion systems and the effects of changes in the operational environment. In support of the main study, investigations were made of the trends in bulk energy transport, of the feasibility of large sailing ships and of the relationship between the internal spaces of a vessel and its cargo capacity.
Notlar:
School code: 0547
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Yer Numarası | Demirbaş Numarası | Shelf Location | Lokasyon / Statüsü / İade Tarihi |
---|---|---|---|
XX(684773.1) | 684773-1001 | Proquest E-Tez Koleksiyonu | Arıyor... |
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