Quantifying the Relative Uncertainties of Changes in Climate and Water Demand for Water Supply Planning
Başlık:
Quantifying the Relative Uncertainties of Changes in Climate and Water Demand for Water Supply Planning
Yazar:
Chang, Seungwoo Jason, author.
ISBN:
9780438120358
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
1 electronic resource (175 pages)
Genel Not:
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 79-11(E), Section: B.
Özet:
General circulation models (GCMs) have recently been developed and widely used to simulate current and future hydrologic studies on a global scale. However, development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems is at an early stage. In this study, sensitivities of projected future precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and water deficit (precipitation -- reference evapotranspiration) to GCM selection, reference evapotranspiration estimation method, and carbon dioxide trajectory were evaluated over the continental U.S. Results showed that change in water deficit is most sensitive to the GCM selection in the cooler months (November through March) and reference evapotranspiration method in the warmer months (May through September) for most regions except the Southeast, where the sensitivity of GCM and reference evapotranspiration method are roughly equal throughout the year. Two GCM bias correction techniques - sequential univariate bias correction and joint bias correction - were evaluated over the Tampa Bay region in Florida USA. Both bias correction techniques reproduced statistics of observed precipitation and reference evapotranspiration better than raw GCM data. Streamflow predicted using bias corrected precipitation and reference evapotranspiration from both bias correction techniques predicted streamflow better than data from the raw GCMs. Eight GCMs were bias corrected using sequential univariate bias correction, and downscaled using stochastic analog downscaling. The GCMs were then used to drive an integrated hydrologic model of the Tampa Bay region in west-central Florida. Climate change and human water-use scenarios were developed and relative impacts of these drivers on hydrologic response were evaluated. While projections of streamflow were most sensitive to climate change, projections of groundwater level were sensitive to both climate change and human water use. Although climate models projected diverse change in streamflow and groundwater in the Tampa Bay region, climate change increases the probability of a decrease in available water resources such as streamflow and groundwater. This research assessed impacts and interactions of potential future climate change and anthropogenic change on the hydrologic system in west-central Florida. Future studies should develop robust decision-making tools to determine strategies for future water-resources management under climate and anthropogenic changes.
Notlar:
School code: 0070
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Yer Numarası | Demirbaş Numarası | Shelf Location | Lokasyon / Statüsü / İade Tarihi |
---|---|---|---|
XX(696577.1) | 696577-1001 | Proquest E-Tez Koleksiyonu | Arıyor... |
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